Thursday, January 26, 2012

Part 3/3: Reflections On An Outstanding Revolution… the people and the happening through the eyes of an Egyptian blogger

The current mood…

To put it in one word, I’d say “gloomy”. And here’s why…

Politically…

A big chunk of the revolutionaries have found what they want; which is “political legitimacy”. And by those I mean the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafi (Islamic) movements. They now have a different priority which is to play it safe and make sure they get into the parliament (MB won just less than 50% of parliamentary seat and Al Nour Salafi party won around 24% of the seats).

Whenever there are skirmishes on the streets between revolutionary protestors and police or army units (for various reasons over the past few months), these two groups (MBs, and Salaifis) stay out of it (unlike during the 2011 revolution).

The rest of the revolutionaries  not that they are an insignificant amount of people, they are in the hundreds of thousands across Egypt) still believe:

- The revolution is not over yet

- The Army has to go back to their barrack

- Families of the injured and deceased citizens during the revolution must be compensated

- The army are trying to control things in Egypt from behind the scenes

- The army is trying to gain time during which they will try to strike deals to laydown the red lines that are not to be crossed by parliment or president
I have to say that there is also great resentment towards the MBs and Salafis (I have to note that the young generation within the MBs have been acting on their own to an extent. For instance, attending rallies against the will of the elder MB generation).

On the other hand, people whom don’t fall into the above categories are (sadly to say) sick of all this (the negative vast majority of Egyptians). They just want life to continue.

Safety/Security…

The streets are still not safe. Many stories about kidnaps (for ransoms), burglary, and killings are on the rise (compared to before the revolution). I personally experienced this remotely as stated in my post "The Egyptian Police Service: A Mockery… Our House as an Example".
Some people do think this is a direction by the police authorities to control people via fear. It is a known fact that in Egypt the Ministery of Interior had many thugs on its payroll or pulled favors for them (i.e. the famous 2005 elections thugs scandal).

Economically…

Things are not good when it comes to economy either. Egypt has used billions of its foreign currency reserves. These days there is shortage in gas and petrol. That’s besides the fact that foreigners have pulled out their investments, and the US (along with Gulf countries) are not sending all financial Aid as a way to pressure the Army towards democracy or any other agenda (like UAE is waiting to see what will happen in Hosni Mubarak’s trial). Not to forget, tourism is almost non- existent!

What next?

Since I had put some predictions on my first post during the revolution, I’ll do the same now just for the fun of it (not that our future is to be taken lightly)…

- Mubarak will be announced innocent from accusations of killing demonstratiors (the fault will be on the officers whom actually killed demonstrators, and most probably the interior minister Al Adly). Mubarak might be (I hope) sent to prison for a few years on some political grounds (corruption, negligence…etc).

- Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan) whom now obviously have a bit less that 50% of the parliament will play politics tactfully (at least for the first year). They will steer away from controversial topics like banning Bikinis, and liquor (those being the topics media keeps accusing them of being the first thing on their agenda). They will also be “VERY” tactful with Copts (Egyptian Christians).
I am almost sure they will not even think of touching the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty (to do other wise would be madness).
Thinking of it, these people (MB) have been playing politics for 80 years…they are not stupid to fall into mistakes such as the ones above…I HOPE!

- The Muslim Brotherhood will continue to take more official (pro-army) point of views on issues and less revolutionary ones (except for things like chasing Mubarak and his old regime icons)

- Al Nour Party (considered right wing Islamic party) will play politics depending on topic being discussed. They will side with liberals on topics and make deals with Muslim Brotherhood on others. This party is the party I worry about. They seem like hardliners and I am not comfortable about them.

- We will have Presidential elections, and my guess (with "Al Baradee" out of the picture now) is that either “Amr Mussa” (x-Egyptian foreign minister and chairman of the Arab League from 2001 till 2011) or a military man (I don’t think “Sahfik”!) will win it.

- The army will go back to their barracks by this summer max

- A deal between the Army and the Muslim Brotherhood (with the knowledge of the Americans since Egypt is such a high stake country for them and the region). The deal will be:

  • No one (president or parliament) approaches or crosses the line and tries to investigate the Army finances or institutes (note: the army will not accept civilians having full supervision on them)
  • No one touches the Peace treaty with Israel
  • MB are to mobilize the people behind the presidential candidate whom supports the above 2 points
  • The Egyptian economy and security conditions will start to stabilize a few months after the presidential elections ONLY IF the winning president and parliament behave within the above plan. I including a lot of Egyptians believe that the insecurity (robbery, kidnapping, shootings…etc) happening in Egypt are intentionally done to scare people. Scared people are easily controlled!
- After Presidential elections, the return of the Army to their barracks, and the return of security we will witness a hike in tourism and the start of foreign investments flow back into the country.

- Demonstrations about everything and anything will continue for a very long time (affecting how fast our economy will recover).

One thing is for sure though, revolutionaries will not give up...
By The Telegraph UK
My Last words after 1 year on the Revolution…

After a year on our Revolution, I have to say I have mixed feelings of pride, frustration, fear, and hope.

The only constant feeling I had (and still have) throughout this past year would be best portrayed by the notable emotional scene from the movie “i7na beto3 el otobees”, when an Egyptian activist whom was being tortured till he died in an Egyptian prison (during the era of Gamal Abdel Nasser) emotionally chanted:
“Masr 7atefdal 3’alya 3alaya…. Masr 7atefdal 3’alya 3alaya” (“No matter what happens, Egypt will always be dear to me”).

Fe3lan, I say it with all my heart: “Masr 7atefdal 3’alya 3alaya…. Masr 7atefdal 3’alya 3alaya…. Masr 7atefdal 3’alya 3alaya”

Mood: Proud, Emotional, and hoping for the best…

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